Open Science Research Excellence

Open Science Index

Commenced in January 2007 Frequency: Monthly Edition: International Publications Count: 29847

Select areas to restrict search in scientific publication database:
Are Economic Crises and Government Changes Related? A Descriptive Statistic Analysis
The main purpose of this study is to provide a detailed statistical overview of the time and regional distribution, relative timing occurrence of economic crises and government changes in 51 economies over the 1990–2007 periods. At the same time, the predictive power of the economic crises on set government changes will be examined using “signal approach". The result showed that the percentage of government changes is highest in transition economies (86 percent of observations) and lowest in Latin American economies (39 percent of observations). The percentages of government changes are same in both developed and developing countries (43 percent of observations). However, average crises per year (frequency of crises) are higher (lower) in developing (developed) countries than developed (developing) countries. Also, the predictive power of economic crises about the onset of a government change is highest in Transition economies (81 percent) and lowest in Latin American countries (30 percent). The predictive power of economic crises in developing countries (43 percent) is lower than developed countries (55 percent).
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):


[1] T. A. Akarca and A. Tansel (2005), Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004. Public Choice, 129(1), October, pp.77-105.
[2] A. Alesina, S. Ozler, N. Roubini and P. Swagel (1992), Economic Instability and Economic Growth. NBER, September.
[3] A. Brender and A. Drazen (2005), How to Budget Deficit and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Cross- Section of Countries. NBER Working Paper, 11862.
[4] N. Campos and F. Nugent, (2002), Who is Afraid of Political Instability? Journal of Development Economics, 67(1), 157-172.
[5] R. Chang (2007), Financial Crises and Political Crises. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, pp. 2409-2420.
[6] J. De Haan and C. L. Siermann (1996), Political Instability, Freedom and Economic Growth: Some Further Evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 44, January.
[7] B. Eichengren, A. Rose and C. Wyplosz (1996), Contagious Currency Crises. NBER, Working Paper, 5681
[8] J. Frankel and A. Rose (1996), Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets. Journal
[9] A. L. Freedman (2005), Economic Crises and Political Change: Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia. Asian Affairs, winter, 31, 4, pp.232-249.
[10] M. J. Gasiorowski (1995), Economic Crises and Political Changes: An Event History Analysis. American Political Science Review, Vol. 89, no.4, 882-897.
[11] M. J. Gasiorowski (1998), Macroeconomic Condition and Political Instability: An Empirical Analysis. Studies in Comparative International Development, Fall 1998, Vol. 33, no.3, 3-17.
[12] R. Glick and M. Hutchison (2001), Banking and Currency Crises: How Commons are Twins? Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Center for Pacific Basin Studies, Working Paper, PB99-08.
[13] M. Z. Hazem (2005), Political Instability and Economic Performance: A Panel Data Analysis. Macalester College, Economic Paper. (
[14] G. L. Kaminsky and C. M. Reinhart (1999), The Twin Crises: The Cause of Banking and Balance-of-Payment Problems. American Economic Review, June, pp. 473-500.
[15] H. Kirmanoglu (2003), Political Freedom and Economic Well-Being: A causality Analysis. International Conference on Policy Modeling, Istanbul, Turkey.
[16] A. Leigh (2004), Does the World Economy Swing National Elections? Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper, No. 485, The Australian National University.
[17] J. Londregan and K. Poole (1990), Poverty, The Coup Trap and The Seizure of Executive Power. World Politics, January.
[18] M. Olson (1991), Autocracy, Democracy and Prosperity. Strategy and Choice, Cambridge/MA, 131-157.
[19] M. Pei, and A. D. Adesnik (2000), Why Recession Don-t Start Revaluations? Foreign Policy (spring), 138-151.
[20] E. E. Zablotsky (1996), Political Stability and Economic Growth. CEMA Working Paper, 109.
Vol:13 No:07 2019Vol:13 No:06 2019Vol:13 No:05 2019Vol:13 No:04 2019Vol:13 No:03 2019Vol:13 No:02 2019Vol:13 No:01 2019
Vol:12 No:12 2018Vol:12 No:11 2018Vol:12 No:10 2018Vol:12 No:09 2018Vol:12 No:08 2018Vol:12 No:07 2018Vol:12 No:06 2018Vol:12 No:05 2018Vol:12 No:04 2018Vol:12 No:03 2018Vol:12 No:02 2018Vol:12 No:01 2018
Vol:11 No:12 2017Vol:11 No:11 2017Vol:11 No:10 2017Vol:11 No:09 2017Vol:11 No:08 2017Vol:11 No:07 2017Vol:11 No:06 2017Vol:11 No:05 2017Vol:11 No:04 2017Vol:11 No:03 2017Vol:11 No:02 2017Vol:11 No:01 2017
Vol:10 No:12 2016Vol:10 No:11 2016Vol:10 No:10 2016Vol:10 No:09 2016Vol:10 No:08 2016Vol:10 No:07 2016Vol:10 No:06 2016Vol:10 No:05 2016Vol:10 No:04 2016Vol:10 No:03 2016Vol:10 No:02 2016Vol:10 No:01 2016
Vol:9 No:12 2015Vol:9 No:11 2015Vol:9 No:10 2015Vol:9 No:09 2015Vol:9 No:08 2015Vol:9 No:07 2015Vol:9 No:06 2015Vol:9 No:05 2015Vol:9 No:04 2015Vol:9 No:03 2015Vol:9 No:02 2015Vol:9 No:01 2015
Vol:8 No:12 2014Vol:8 No:11 2014Vol:8 No:10 2014Vol:8 No:09 2014Vol:8 No:08 2014Vol:8 No:07 2014Vol:8 No:06 2014Vol:8 No:05 2014Vol:8 No:04 2014Vol:8 No:03 2014Vol:8 No:02 2014Vol:8 No:01 2014
Vol:7 No:12 2013Vol:7 No:11 2013Vol:7 No:10 2013Vol:7 No:09 2013Vol:7 No:08 2013Vol:7 No:07 2013Vol:7 No:06 2013Vol:7 No:05 2013Vol:7 No:04 2013Vol:7 No:03 2013Vol:7 No:02 2013Vol:7 No:01 2013
Vol:6 No:12 2012Vol:6 No:11 2012Vol:6 No:10 2012Vol:6 No:09 2012Vol:6 No:08 2012Vol:6 No:07 2012Vol:6 No:06 2012Vol:6 No:05 2012Vol:6 No:04 2012Vol:6 No:03 2012Vol:6 No:02 2012Vol:6 No:01 2012
Vol:5 No:12 2011Vol:5 No:11 2011Vol:5 No:10 2011Vol:5 No:09 2011Vol:5 No:08 2011Vol:5 No:07 2011Vol:5 No:06 2011Vol:5 No:05 2011Vol:5 No:04 2011Vol:5 No:03 2011Vol:5 No:02 2011Vol:5 No:01 2011
Vol:4 No:12 2010Vol:4 No:11 2010Vol:4 No:10 2010Vol:4 No:09 2010Vol:4 No:08 2010Vol:4 No:07 2010Vol:4 No:06 2010Vol:4 No:05 2010Vol:4 No:04 2010Vol:4 No:03 2010Vol:4 No:02 2010Vol:4 No:01 2010
Vol:3 No:12 2009Vol:3 No:11 2009Vol:3 No:10 2009Vol:3 No:09 2009Vol:3 No:08 2009Vol:3 No:07 2009Vol:3 No:06 2009Vol:3 No:05 2009Vol:3 No:04 2009Vol:3 No:03 2009Vol:3 No:02 2009Vol:3 No:01 2009
Vol:2 No:12 2008Vol:2 No:11 2008Vol:2 No:10 2008Vol:2 No:09 2008Vol:2 No:08 2008Vol:2 No:07 2008Vol:2 No:06 2008Vol:2 No:05 2008Vol:2 No:04 2008Vol:2 No:03 2008Vol:2 No:02 2008Vol:2 No:01 2008
Vol:1 No:12 2007Vol:1 No:11 2007Vol:1 No:10 2007Vol:1 No:09 2007Vol:1 No:08 2007Vol:1 No:07 2007Vol:1 No:06 2007Vol:1 No:05 2007Vol:1 No:04 2007Vol:1 No:03 2007Vol:1 No:02 2007Vol:1 No:01 2007