Forecasting Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar Using Time Series Analysis
The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0) without constant and the forecasting equation is Yt = Yt-1 + 0.3691 (Yt-1 - Yt-2) When Yt is the time series data at time t, respectively.
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