{
"title": "Forecast of the Small Wind Turbines Sales with Replacement Purchases and with or without Account of Price Changes",
"authors": "V. Churkin, M. Lopatin",
"country": "Russian Federation",
"institution": "saint-petersburg politechnic university",
"volume": "102",
"journal": "International Journal of Social, Behavioral, Educational, Economic, Business and Industrial Engineering",
"pagesStart": 1877,
"pagesEnd": 1883,
"ISSN": "1307-6892",
"URL": "http:\/\/waset.org\/publications\/10001573",
"abstract": "The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small\r\nwind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines\r\nsales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of\r\nthe Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations\r\ndiffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential\r\ndistribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one\r\nparameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of\r\nsmall wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is\r\nbased on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual\r\nsales statistics which has been published by the American Wind\r\nEnergy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation\r\nof the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for\r\nadoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080\r\n(confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average\r\nlifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval\r\nfrom 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind\r\nturbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%,\r\nwhile in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price\r\nchanges on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model.\r\nThis required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression\r\nfunction, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The\r\nestimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines\r\n(for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval\r\nfrom 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind\r\nturbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to\r\n58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years.\r\nIn the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second\r\n\u2013 95,3%.",
"references": null,
"publisher": "World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology",
"index": "International Science Index 102, 2015"
}