Excellence in Research and Innovation for Humanity

International Science Index

Commenced in January 1999 Frequency: Monthly Edition: International Paper Count: 4

4
10000936
Early Warning System of Financial Distress Based On Credit Cycle Index
Authors:
Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Digital Article Identifier (DAI):
3
17098
A Statistical Prediction of Likely Distress in Nigeria Banking Sector Using a Neural Network Approach
Authors:
Abstract:

One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Digital Article Identifier (DAI):
2
14836
Consumer Insolvency in the Czech Republic
Abstract:
The Czech Republic is a country whose economy has undergone a transformation since 1989. Since joining the EU it has been striving to reduce the differences in its economic standard and the quality of its institutional environment in comparison with developed countries. According to an assessment carried out by the World Bank, the Czech Republic was long classed as a country whose institutional development was seen as problematic. For many years one of the things it was rated most poorly on was its bankruptcy law. The new Insolvency Act, which is a modern law in terms of its treatment of bankruptcy, was first adopted in the Czech Republic in 2006. This law, together with other regulatory measures, offers debtridden Czech economic subjects legal instruments which are well established and in common practice in developed market economies. Since then, analyses performed by the World Bank and the London EBRD have shown that there have been significant steps forward in the quality of Czech bankruptcy law. The Czech Republic still lacks an analytical apparatus which can offer a structured characterisation of the general and specific conditions of Czech company and household debt which is subject to current changes in the global economy. This area has so far not been given the attention it deserves. The lack of research is particularly clear as regards analysis of household debt and householders- ability to settle their debts in a reasonable manner using legal and other state means of regulation. We assume that Czech households have recourse to a modern insolvency law, yet the effective application of this law is hampered by the inconsistencies in the formal and informal institutions involved in resolving debt. This in turn is based on the assumption that this lack of consistency is more marked in cases of personal bankruptcy. Our aim is to identify the symptoms which indicate that for some time the effective application of bankruptcy law in the Czech Republic will be hindered by factors originating in householders- relative inability to identify the risks of falling into debt.
Digital Article Identifier (DAI):
1
9782
Predicting Bankruptcy using Tabu Search in the Mauritian Context
Abstract:

Throughout this paper, a relatively new technique, the Tabu search variable selection model, is elaborated showing how it can be efficiently applied within the financial world whenever researchers come across the selection of a subset of variables from a whole set of descriptive variables under analysis. In the field of financial prediction, researchers often have to select a subset of variables from a larger set to solve different type of problems such as corporate bankruptcy prediction, personal bankruptcy prediction, mortgage, credit scoring and the Arbitrage Pricing Model (APM). Consequently, to demonstrate how the method operates and to illustrate its usefulness as well as its superiority compared to other commonly used methods, the Tabu search algorithm for variable selection is compared to two main alternative search procedures namely, the stepwise regression and the maximum R 2 improvement method. The Tabu search is then implemented in finance; where it attempts to predict corporate bankruptcy by selecting the most appropriate financial ratios and thus creating its own prediction score equation. In comparison to other methods, mostly the Altman Z-Score model, the Tabu search model produces a higher success rate in predicting correctly the failure of firms or the continuous running of existing entities.

Digital Article Identifier (DAI):
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