Economic Growth Relations to Domestic and International Air Passenger Transport in Brazil
This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.
Discontinuous Spacetime with Vacuum Holes as Explanation for Gravitation, Quantum Mechanics and Teleportation
Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.
Analysis of Causality between Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Mexico 1971-2011
This paper analyzes the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to test the causality relationship between economic activity, trade openness and carbon dioxide emissions in Mexico (1971-2011). The results achieved in this research show that there are three long-run relationships between production, trade openness, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The EKC hypothesis was not verified in this research. Indeed, it was found evidence of a short-term unidirectional causality from GDP and GDP squared to carbon dioxide emissions, from GDP, GDP squared and TO to EC, and bidirectional causality between TO and GDP. Finally, it was found evidence of long-term unidirectional causality from all variables to carbon emissions. These results suggest that a reduction in energy consumption, economic activity, or an increase in trade openness would reduce pollution.
A Study of Islamic Stock Indices and Macroeconomic Variables
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statistic) tests are employed to check stationarity of the data. The study depicts the long run relationship between Shariah indices and macroeconomic variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test. BSE Shariah and Nifty Shariah have uni-direct Granger causality. The outcome of VECM is significantly confirming the applicability of best fitted model. Thus, Islamic stock indices are proficiently working for the development of Indian economy. It suggests that by keeping eyes on Islamic stock market which will be more interactive in the future with other macroeconomic variables.
Analysis of Causality between Defect Causes Using Association Rule Mining
Construction defects are major components that result in negative impacts on project performance including schedule delays and cost overruns. Since construction defects generally occur when a few associated causes combine, a thorough understanding of defect causality is required in order to more systematically prevent construction defects. To address this issue, this paper uses association rule mining (ARM) to quantify the causality between defect causes, and social network analysis (SNA) to find indirect causality among them. The suggested approach is validated with 350 defect instances from concrete works in 32 projects in Korea. The results show that the interrelationships revealed by the approach reflect the characteristics of the concrete task and the important causes that should be prevented.
Sectoral Energy Consumption in South Africa and Its Implication for Economic Growth
South Africa is in its post-industrial era moving from
the primary and secondary sector to the tertiary sector. The study
investigated the impact of the disaggregated energy consumption
(coal, oil, and electricity) on the primary, secondary and tertiary
sectors of the economy between 1980 and 2012 in South Africa.
Using vector error correction model, it was established that South
Africa is an energy dependent economy, and that energy (especially
electricity and oil) is a limiting factor of growth. This implies that
implementation of energy conservation policies may hamper
economic growth. Output growth is significantly outpacing energy
supply, which has necessitated load shedding. To meet up the excess
energy demand, there is a need to increase the generating capacity
which will necessitate increased investment in the electricity sector as
well as strategic steps to increase oil production. There is also need to
explore more renewable energy sources, in order to meet the growing
energy demand without compromising growth and environmental
sustainability. Policy makers should also pursue energy efficiency
policies especially at sectoral level of the economy.
Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Mexico
The causality between energy consumption and
economic growth has been an important issue in the economic
literature. This paper studies the causal relationship between
electricity consumption and economic growth in Mexico for the
period of 1971-2011. In so doing, unit root and causality tests are
applied. The results show that energy consumption and economic
growth series are stationary and there is also a causality relationship
running from economic growth to electricity consumption. Therefore,
any energy conservation policy would have little or no impact at all
on economic growth in México.
Governance and Economic Growth: Evidence of Ten Asian Countries
This study utilizes a frequency domain approach over
the period of 1996 to 2013 to examine the causal relationship between
governance and economic growth in ten Asian countries, which have
different levels of democracy; classified as “Free”, “Partly Free”, and
“Not Free” countries. The empirical results show that there is no
Granger causality running from governance to economic growth in
“Not Free” countries and “Partly Free” countries with the exception of
Singapore. As for “Free” countries such as South Korea and Taiwan,
there is a one-way causality running from governance to economic
growth. The findings of this study indicate that policy makers in South
Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore could use governance index to improve
their predictions of the future economic growth.
Causal Relationship between Macro-Economic Indicators and Funds Unit Prices Behavior: Evidence from Malaysian Islamic Equity Unit Trust Funds Industry
In this study, attempt has been made to investigate the
relationship specifically the causal relation between fund unit prices
of Islamic equity unit trust fund which measure by fund NAV and the
selected macro-economic variables of Malaysian economy by using
VECM causality test and Granger causality test. Monthly data has
been used from Jan, 2006 to Dec, 2012 for all the variables. The
findings of the study showed that industrial production index,
political election and financial crisis are the only variables having
unidirectional causal relationship with fund unit price. However the
global oil price is having bidirectional causality with fund NAV.
Thus, it is concluded that the equity unit trust fund industry in
Malaysia is an inefficient market with respect to the industrial
production index, global oil prices, political election and financial
crisis. However the market is approaching towards informational
efficiency at least with respect to four macroeconomic variables,
treasury bill rate, money supply, foreign exchange rate, and
The Relationship of Private Savings and Economic Growth: Case of Croatia
The main objective of the research in this paper is to empirically assess the causal relationship of private savings and economic growth in the Republic of Croatia. Households’ savings are approximated by household deposits in banks, while domestic income is approximated by industrial production volume indices. Vector Autoregression model and Granger causality tests are used to in order to analyse the relationship among private savings and economic growth. Since ADF unit root tests have shown that both mentioned series are non stationary at levels, series are first differenced in order to become stationary. Therefore, VAR model is estimated with percentage change in private savings and percentage change in domestic income, which can be interpreted as economic growth in case of positive percentage change in domestic income. The Granger causality test has shown that there is no causal relationship among private savings and economic growth in Croatia. The impulse response functions have shown that the impact of shock in domestic income on private savings change is stronger than the impact of private saving on growth. Variance decompositions show that both economic growth and private saving change explain the largest part of its own forecast variance. The research has shown that the link between private savings economic and growth in Croatia is weak, what is in line with relevant empirical research in small open economies.
Modeling Residential Electricity Consumption Function in Malaysia: Time Series Approach
As the Malaysian residential electricity consumption continued to increase rapidly, effective energy policies, which address factors affecting residential electricity consumption, is urgently needed. This study attempts to investigate the relationship between residential electricity consumption (EC), real disposable income (Y), price of electricity (Pe) and population (Po) in Malaysia for 1978-2011 period. Unlike previous studies on Malaysia, the current study focuses on the residential sector, a sector that is important for the contemplation of energy policy. The Phillips-Perron (P-P) unit root test is employed to infer the stationarity of each variable while the bound test is executed to determine the existence of co-integration relationship among the variables, modelled in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests are applied to ensure the stability of the model. The results suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bidirectional Granger causality between EC and the macroeconomic variables. The empirical findings will help policy makers of Malaysia in developing new monitoring standards of energy consumption. As it is the major contributing factor in economic growth and CO2 emission, there is a need for more proper planning in Malaysia to attain future targets in order to cut emissions.
Model Inversion of a Two Degrees of Freedom Linearized PUMA from Bicausal Bond Graphs
A bond graph model of a two degrees of freedom
PUMA is described. System inversion gives the system input
required to generate a given system output. In order to get the system
inversion of the PUMA manipulator, a linearization of the nonlinear
bond graph is obtained. Hence, the bicausality of the linearized bond
graph of the PUMA manipulator is applied. Thus, the bicausal bond
graph provides a systematic way of generating the equations of the
system inversion. Simulation results to verify the calculated input for
a given output are shown.
Information Transmission between Large and Small Stocks in the Korean Stock Market
Little attention has been paid to information
transmission between the portfolios of large stocks and small stocks in the Korean stock market. This study investigates the return and volatility transmission mechanisms between large and small stocks in
the Korea Exchange (KRX). This study also explores whether bad news in the large stock market leads to a volatility of the small stock
market that is larger than the good news volatility of the large stock market. By employing the Granger causality test, we found
unidirectional return transmissions from the large stocks to medium
and small stocks. This evidence indicates that pat information about
the large stocks has a better ability to predict the returns of the medium and small stocks in the Korean stock market. Moreover, by using the
asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model, we observed the unidirectional relationship of asymmetric volatility transmission from large stocks to
the medium and small stocks. This finding suggests that volatility in
the medium and small stocks following a negative shock in the large
stocks is larger than that following a positive shock in the large stocks.
Trade Openness and Its Effects on Economic Growth in Selected South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Study
The study investigates the causal link between trade
openness and economic growth for four South Asian countries for
period 1972-1985 and 1986-2007 to examine the scenario before and
after the implementation of SAARC. Panel cointegration and
FMOLS techniques are employed for short run and long run
estimates. In 1972-85 short run unidirectional causality from GDP to
openness is found whereas, in 1986-2007 there exists bi-directional
causality between GDP and openness. The long run elasticity
magnitude between GDP and openness contains negative sign in
1972-85 which shows that there exists long run negative relationship.
While in time period 1986-2007 the elasticity magnitude has positive
sign that indicates positive causation between GDP and openness. So
it can be concluded that after the implementation of SAARC overall
situation of selected countries got better. Also long run coefficient of
error term suggests that short term equilibrium adjustments are driven
by adjustment back to long run equilibrium.
Dynamic Interrelationship among the Stock Markets of India, Pakistan and United States
The interrelationship between international stock
markets has been a key study area among the financial market
researchers for international portfolio management and risk
measurement. The characteristics of security returns and their
dynamics play a vital role in the financial market theory. This study
is an attempt to find out the dynamic linkages among the equity
market of USA and emerging markets of Pakistan and India using
daily data covering the period of January 2003–December 2009. The
study utilizes Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
12, 1988) and Johansen and Juselius (Oxford Bulletin of Economics
and Statistics, 52, 1990) cointegration procedure for long run
relationship and Granger-causality tests based on Toda and
Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics, 66, 1995) methodology.
No cointegration was found among stock markets of USA, Pakistan
and India, while Granger-causality test showed the evidence of
unidirectional causality running from New York stock exchange to
Bombay and Karachi stock exchanges.
Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: A Co-integrated Panel Analysis
This study examines causal link between energy use and economic growth for five South Asian countries over period 1971-2006. Panel cointegration, ECM and FMOLS are applied for short and long run estimates. In short run unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption is found, but not vice versa. In long run one percent increase in per capita energy consumption tend to decrease 0.13 percent per capita GDP. i.e. Energy use discourage economic growth. This short and long run relationship indicate energy shortage crisis in South Asia due to increased energy use coupled with insufficient energy supply. Beside this long run estimated coefficient of error term suggest that short term adjustment to equilibrium are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium. Moreover, per capita energy consumption is responsive to adjustment back to equilibrium and it takes 59 years approximately. It specifies long run feedback between both variables.
A Coherent Relationship between EconomicGrowth and Unemployment: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan
The study is aimed to test causal relationship between
growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from
1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the
level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political
issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading
to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there
is long run relationship between growth and unemployment. For
short run dynamics and causality, the study utilizes Vector Error
Correction Model (VECM). The results of VECM indicate that there
is short and long run causal relation between growth and
unemployment including capital, labor and human capital as
The Complementarities of Multi-Lateralism, Andregionalism and Income Convergence: ASEAN and SAARC
This paper proposes the hypothesis that multilateralism and regionalism are complementary, and that regional income convergence is likely with a like minded and committed regionalism that often has links geographically and culturally. The association between international trade, income per capita, and regional income convergence in founder members of ASEAN and SAARC, is explored by applying the Lumsdaine, and Papell approach. The causal relationships between the above variables are also studied in respective trade blocs by using Granger causality tests. The conclusion is that global reforms have had a greater impact on increasing trade for both trade blocs and induced convergence only in ASEAN-5 countries. The experience of ASEAN countries shows a two-way causal relationship between the flow from trade to regional income convergence, and vice versa. There is no evidence in SAARC countries for income convergence and causality.
Impact of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (Reer) on Turkish Agricultural Trade
In this work, the autoregressive vectors are used to
know dynamics of the Agricultural export and import, and the real
effective exchange rate (REER). In order to analyze the interactions,
the impulse- response function is used in decomposition of variance,
causality of Granger as well as the methodology of Johansen to know
the relations co integration. The REER causes agricultural export and
import in the sense of Granger. The influence displays the
innovations of the REER on the agricultural export and import is not
very great and the duration of the effects is short. It displays that
REER has an immediate positive effect, after the tenth year it
displays smooth results on the agricultural export. Evidence of a
vector exists co integration, In short run, REER has smaller effects
on export and import, compared to the long-run effects.