Open Science Research Excellence

Open Science Index

Commenced in January 2007 Frequency: Monthly Edition: International Paper Count: 9

9
10010299
Italian Central Guarantee Fund: An Analysis of the Guaranteed SMEs’ Default Risk
Abstract:

Italian Central Guarantee Fund (CGF) has the purpose to facilitate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ access to credit. The aim of the paper is to study the evaluation method adopted by the CGF with regard to SMEs requiring its intervention. This is even more important in the light of the recent CGF reform. We analyse an initial sample of more than 500.000 guarantees from 2012 to 2018. We distinguish between a counter-guarantee delivered to a mutual guarantee institution and a guarantee directly delivered to a bank. We investigate the impact of variables related to the operations and the SMEs on Altman Z’’-score and the score consistent with CGF methodology. We verify that the type of intervention affects the scores and the initial condition changes with the new assessment criterions. 

8
10003916
Using Vulnerability to Reduce False Positive Rate in Intrusion Detection Systems
Abstract:
Intrusion Detection Systems are an essential tool for network security infrastructure. However, IDSs have a serious problem which is the generating of massive number of alerts, most of them are false positive ones which can hide true alerts and make the analyst confused to analyze the right alerts for report the true attacks. The purpose behind this paper is to present a formalism model to perform correlation engine by the reduction of false positive alerts basing on vulnerability contextual information. For that, we propose a formalism model based on non-monotonic JClassicδє description logic augmented with a default (δ) and an exception (є) operator that allows a dynamic inference according to contextual information.
7
9999899
Modeling Default Probabilities of the Chosen Czech Banks in the Time of the Financial Crisis
Authors:
Abstract:

One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

6
9999291
Cash Flow Optimization on Synthetic CDOs
Abstract:

Collateralized Debt Obligations are not as widely used nowadays as they were before 2007 Subprime crisis. Nonetheless there remains an enthralling challenge to optimize cash flows associated with synthetic CDOs. A Gaussian-based model is used here in which default correlation and unconditional probabilities of default are highlighted. Then numerous simulations are performed based on this model for different scenarios in order to evaluate the associated cash flows given a specific number of defaults at different periods of time. Cash flows are not solely calculated on a single bought or sold tranche but rather on a combination of bought and sold tranches. With some assumptions, the simplex algorithm gives a way to find the maximum cash flow according to correlation of defaults and maturities. The used Gaussian model is not realistic in crisis situations. Besides present system does not handle buying or selling a portion of a tranche but only the whole tranche. However the work provides the investor with relevant elements on how to know what and when to buy and sell.

5
448
Optimal Allocation Between Subprime Structured Mortgage Products and Treasuries
Abstract:

This conference paper discusses a risk allocation problem for subprime investing banks involving investment in subprime structured mortgage products (SMPs) and Treasuries. In order to solve this problem, we develop a L'evy process-based model of jump diffusion-type for investment choice in subprime SMPs and Treasuries. This model incorporates subprime SMP losses for which credit default insurance in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs) can be purchased. In essence, we solve a mean swap-at-risk (SaR) optimization problem for investment which determines optimal allocation between SMPs and Treasuries subject to credit risk protection via CDSs. In this regard, SaR is indicative of how much protection investors must purchase from swap protection sellers in order to cover possible losses from SMP default. Here, SaR is defined in terms of value-at-risk (VaR). Finally, we provide an analysis of the aforementioned optimization problem and its connections with the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC).

4
7593
Sovereign Credit Risk Measures
Abstract:
This paper focuses on sovereign credit risk meaning a hot topic related to the current Eurozone crisis. In the light of the recent financial crisis, market perception of the creditworthiness of individual sovereigns has changed significantly. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis, market participants did not differentiate between credit risk born by individual states despite different levels of public indebtedness. In the proceeding of the financial crisis, the market participants became aware of the worsening fiscal situation in the European countries and started to discriminate among government issuers. Concerns about the increasing sovereign risk were reflected in surging sovereign risk premium. The main of this paper is to shed light on the characteristics of the sovereign risk with the special attention paid to the mutual relation between credit spread and the CDS premium as the main measures of the sovereign risk premium.
3
14815
Simultaneous Term Structure Estimation of Hazard and Loss Given Default with a Statistical Model using Credit Rating and Financial Information
Abstract:
The objective of this study is to propose a statistical modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default, incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.
2
12460
Enhancement Approaches for Supporting Default Hierarchies Formation for Robot Behaviors
Abstract:

Robotic system is an important area in artificial intelligence that aims at developing the performance techniques of the robot and making it more efficient and more effective in choosing its correct behavior. In this paper the distributed learning classifier system is used for designing a simulated control system for robot to perform complex behaviors. A set of enhanced approaches that support default hierarchies formation is suggested and compared with each other in order to make the simulated robot more effective in mapping the input to the correct output behavior.

1
10939
Join and Meet Block Based Default Definite Decision Rule Mining from IDT and an Incremental Algorithm
Abstract:
Using maximal consistent blocks of tolerance relation on the universe in incomplete decision table, the concepts of join block and meet block are introduced and studied. Including tolerance class, other blocks such as tolerant kernel and compatible kernel of an object are also discussed at the same time. Upper and lower approximations based on those blocks are also defined. Default definite decision rules acquired from incomplete decision table are proposed in the paper. An incremental algorithm to update default definite decision rules is suggested for effective mining tasks from incomplete decision table into which data is appended. Through an example, we demonstrate how default definite decision rules based on maximal consistent blocks, join blocks and meet blocks are acquired and how optimization is done in support of discernibility matrix and discernibility function in the incomplete decision table.
Vol:13 No:08 2019Vol:13 No:07 2019Vol:13 No:06 2019Vol:13 No:05 2019Vol:13 No:04 2019Vol:13 No:03 2019Vol:13 No:02 2019Vol:13 No:01 2019
Vol:12 No:12 2018Vol:12 No:11 2018Vol:12 No:10 2018Vol:12 No:09 2018Vol:12 No:08 2018Vol:12 No:07 2018Vol:12 No:06 2018Vol:12 No:05 2018Vol:12 No:04 2018Vol:12 No:03 2018Vol:12 No:02 2018Vol:12 No:01 2018
Vol:11 No:12 2017Vol:11 No:11 2017Vol:11 No:10 2017Vol:11 No:09 2017Vol:11 No:08 2017Vol:11 No:07 2017Vol:11 No:06 2017Vol:11 No:05 2017Vol:11 No:04 2017Vol:11 No:03 2017Vol:11 No:02 2017Vol:11 No:01 2017
Vol:10 No:12 2016Vol:10 No:11 2016Vol:10 No:10 2016Vol:10 No:09 2016Vol:10 No:08 2016Vol:10 No:07 2016Vol:10 No:06 2016Vol:10 No:05 2016Vol:10 No:04 2016Vol:10 No:03 2016Vol:10 No:02 2016Vol:10 No:01 2016
Vol:9 No:12 2015Vol:9 No:11 2015Vol:9 No:10 2015Vol:9 No:09 2015Vol:9 No:08 2015Vol:9 No:07 2015Vol:9 No:06 2015Vol:9 No:05 2015Vol:9 No:04 2015Vol:9 No:03 2015Vol:9 No:02 2015Vol:9 No:01 2015
Vol:8 No:12 2014Vol:8 No:11 2014Vol:8 No:10 2014Vol:8 No:09 2014Vol:8 No:08 2014Vol:8 No:07 2014Vol:8 No:06 2014Vol:8 No:05 2014Vol:8 No:04 2014Vol:8 No:03 2014Vol:8 No:02 2014Vol:8 No:01 2014
Vol:7 No:12 2013Vol:7 No:11 2013Vol:7 No:10 2013Vol:7 No:09 2013Vol:7 No:08 2013Vol:7 No:07 2013Vol:7 No:06 2013Vol:7 No:05 2013Vol:7 No:04 2013Vol:7 No:03 2013Vol:7 No:02 2013Vol:7 No:01 2013
Vol:6 No:12 2012Vol:6 No:11 2012Vol:6 No:10 2012Vol:6 No:09 2012Vol:6 No:08 2012Vol:6 No:07 2012Vol:6 No:06 2012Vol:6 No:05 2012Vol:6 No:04 2012Vol:6 No:03 2012Vol:6 No:02 2012Vol:6 No:01 2012
Vol:5 No:12 2011Vol:5 No:11 2011Vol:5 No:10 2011Vol:5 No:09 2011Vol:5 No:08 2011Vol:5 No:07 2011Vol:5 No:06 2011Vol:5 No:05 2011Vol:5 No:04 2011Vol:5 No:03 2011Vol:5 No:02 2011Vol:5 No:01 2011
Vol:4 No:12 2010Vol:4 No:11 2010Vol:4 No:10 2010Vol:4 No:09 2010Vol:4 No:08 2010Vol:4 No:07 2010Vol:4 No:06 2010Vol:4 No:05 2010Vol:4 No:04 2010Vol:4 No:03 2010Vol:4 No:02 2010Vol:4 No:01 2010
Vol:3 No:12 2009Vol:3 No:11 2009Vol:3 No:10 2009Vol:3 No:09 2009Vol:3 No:08 2009Vol:3 No:07 2009Vol:3 No:06 2009Vol:3 No:05 2009Vol:3 No:04 2009Vol:3 No:03 2009Vol:3 No:02 2009Vol:3 No:01 2009
Vol:2 No:12 2008Vol:2 No:11 2008Vol:2 No:10 2008Vol:2 No:09 2008Vol:2 No:08 2008Vol:2 No:07 2008Vol:2 No:06 2008Vol:2 No:05 2008Vol:2 No:04 2008Vol:2 No:03 2008Vol:2 No:02 2008Vol:2 No:01 2008
Vol:1 No:12 2007Vol:1 No:11 2007Vol:1 No:10 2007Vol:1 No:09 2007Vol:1 No:08 2007Vol:1 No:07 2007Vol:1 No:06 2007Vol:1 No:05 2007Vol:1 No:04 2007Vol:1 No:03 2007Vol:1 No:02 2007Vol:1 No:01 2007